Citation

Wong DKY, Pitfield DE, Caves RE, Appleyard AJ. Safety Sci. 2009; 47(7): 903-912.

Copyright

(Copyright © 2009, Elsevier Publishing)

DOI

10.1016/j.ssci.2008.09.010

PMID

unavailable

Abstract

This two-part paper presents the development of an improved airport risk assessment methodology aimed at assessing risks related to aircraft accidents at and in the vicinity of airports and managing airport safety areas (ASAs) as a risk mitigation measure. The improved methodology is more quantitative, risk-sensitive, flexible and transparent than standard risk assessment approaches. As such, it contributes to the implementation of Safety Management Systems at airports, as stipulated by the International Civil Aviation Organisation.

The first part of the paper presents the methodological advances made in the development of accident frequency models; namely the building of a single comprehensive database of all relevant accident types, the collection and use of normal operations data in quantifying the criticality of a series of risk factors, and modelling accident frequency using multivariate logistic regression. The resulting models have better goodness-of-fit, sensitivity and specificity than standard risk assessment methodologies.