Citation

Stein S, Liu M. Nature 2009; 462(7269): 87-89.

Copyright

(Copyright © 2009, Holtzbrinck Springer Nature Publishing Group)

DOI

10.1038/nature08502

PMID

unavailable

Abstract

Within plate interiors, assessments of earthquake hazards rely heavily on the assumption that the locations of the few recorded small earthquakes reflect continuing deformation that will cause future large earthquakes. Here, however, a simple model shows that many of these recent earthquakes are probably aftershocks of large earthquakes that occurred hundreds of years ago, causing earthquake prediction to overestimate hazard in presently active areas, and underestimate it elsewhere.