Citation

Bender MA, Knutson TR, Tuleya RE, Sirutis JJ, Vecchi GA, Garner ST, Held IM. Science 2010; 327(5964): 454-458.

Affiliation

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, 201 Forrestal Road, Princeton, NJ 08540, USA. Morris.Bender@noaa.gov

Copyright

(Copyright © 2010, American Association for the Advancement of Science)

DOI

10.1126/science.1180568

PMID

20093471

Abstract

Several recent models suggest that the frequency of Atlantic tropical cyclones could decrease as the climate warms. However, these models are unable to reproduce storms of category 3 or higher intensity. We explored the influence of future global warming on Atlantic hurricanes with a downscaling strategy by using an operational hurricane-prediction model that produces a realistic distribution of intense hurricane activity for present-day conditions. The model projects nearly a doubling of the frequency of category 4 and 5 storms by the end of the 21st century, despite a decrease in the overall frequency of tropical cyclones, when the downscaling is based on the ensemble mean of 18 global climate-change projections. The largest increase is projected to occur in the Western Atlantic, north of 20 degrees N.

Language: en