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Abstract
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To investigate the associations among handgun regulations, assault and other crimes, and homicide, we studied robberies, burglaries, assaults, and homicides in Seattle, Washington, and Vancouver, British Columbia, from 1980 through 1986. Although similar to Seattle in many ways, Vancouver has adopted a more restrictive approach to the regulation of handguns. During the study period, both cities had similar rates of burglary and robbery. In Seattle, the annual rate of assault was modestly higher than that in Vancouver (simple assault: relative risk, 1.18; 95 percent confidence interval, 1.15 to 1.20; aggravated assault: relative risk, 1.16; 95 percent confidence interval, 1.12 to 1.19). However, the rate of assaults involving firearms was seven times higher in Seattle than in Vancouver. Despite similar overall rates of criminal activity and assault, the relative risk of death from homicide, adjusted for age and sex, was significantly higher in Seattle than in Vancouver (relative risk, 1.63; 95 percent confidence interval, 1.28 to 2.08). Virtually all of this excess risk was explained by a 4.8-fold higher risk of being murdered with a handgun in Seattle as compared with Vancouver. Rates of homicide by means other than guns were not substantially different in the two study communities. We conclude that restricting access to handguns may reduce the rate of homicide in a community.
VioLit summary:
OBJECTIVE:
The goal of this paper by Sloan et al. was to investigate robberies, burglaries, assaults, and homicides relation to handgun regulation using a comparative city-level study. This study was done to test the theory that gun control has a direct impact on decreasing community rates of homicide.
METHODOLOGY:
A quasi-experimental, analysis of secondary data was used to analyze and compare the effects of handgun regulations and the use of handguns in committing crimes in Seattle, Washington, and Vancouver, British Columbia. Seattle and Vancouver showed a lot of similarities between geological location, population, and rates of burglary and robbery. In Seattle, handguns may be bought for self-defense, and a permit could be obtained to carry the gun as a concealed weapon after 30 days. There was a minimal restriction on the recreational use of handguns in Seattle. Vancouver adopted more restrictive handgun gun regulations. Self-defense was not a legal or valid reason to buy a handgun, and concealed weapons were not permitted. Recreational use of handguns were regulated by the province, and the purchase of a handgun requires a restricted weapons permit. Both cities aggressively enforce their firearm regulations, and convictions for gun related offenses carry similar penalties. Gun ownership rates were indirectly assessed by two independent methods. First, data from the Firearm Permit Office of the Vancouver police department were obtained to count the restricted-weapons permits issued in Vancouver between March 1984 and March 1988. This data were then compared with the total number of concealed-weapons permits issued in Seattle during the same period. This data were obtained from the Office of Business and Profession Administration, Department of Licensing, of the State of Washington. Second, Cook's gun prevalence index based on data from 49 cities in the United States was used for its established validity. This index correlated each city's rates of suicide and assaultive homicide involving firearms with survey-based estimates of gun ownership. Police records were used to identify all cases of robbery, burglary, and assault, and all the homicides that occurred in Seattle or Vancouver between January 1, 1980 and December 31, 1986. In defining cases, the guidelines of the U.S. Federal Bureau of Investigation's Uniform Crime Reports (UCR) were used. Homicides that the police, the prosecuting attorney, or both thought were committed in self-defense were identified and noted separately. From both Seattle and Vancouver, annual and cumulative data on the rates of aggravated assault, simple assault, robbery, and burglary were obtained. Cases of aggravated assault were categorized according to the weapon used. Data on homicides were obtained from the files of the medical examiner or coroner in each community and were supplemented by police case files. These were categorized by age, sex, and race of the victim as well as the weapon used. Population-based rates of all data were then calculated, compared, and expressed as the number per 100,000 persons per year. Unadjusted estimates of relative risk and 95% confidence intervals were calculated with the use of the maximum-likelihood method and are based on Seattle's rate relative to Vancouver's. Age-adjusted relative risks were estimated with the use of the Mantel-Haenszel odds ratio.
FINDINGS/DISCUSSION:
During the seven year study, the annual rate of robbery in Seattle was found to be only slightly higher than that in Vancouver (relative risk, 1.09; 95% confidence interval, 1.08 to 1.12). Burglaries occurred at nearly identical rates in the two communities (relative risk, 0.99; 95% confidence interval, 0.98 to 1.00). 18,925 cases of aggravated assault were reported in Seattle as compared with 12,034 cases in Vancouver. When the annual rates of assault in the two cities were compared for each year of the study, it was found that the two communities had similar rates of assault during the first four years of the study. In 1984, reported rates of simple and aggravated assault began to climb sharply in Seattle while remaining constant in Vancouver. This change coincided with the enactment that year of the Domestic Violence Protection Act by the Washington State legislature, and, which changed reporting and arrest behavior. Therefore, these increases can be connected to the rise of incidents reported. Vancouver had no similar law so the data on assaults was restricted to the first four years of the study. The risk of being a victim of simple or aggravated assault in Seattle during this four year period was found to be only slightly higher than in Vancouver. However, when aggravated assaults were subdivided by the type of weapon used and the mechanism of assault, firearms were found to be more likely used in cases of assault in Seattle while rates of other weapons used in assaults stayed about the same. The difference in the relative risk of aggravated assault between the two cities was entirely due to Seattle's 7.7 fold higher rate of assaults involving firearms. In the seven year study period, 388 homicides occurred in Seattle and 204 homicides occurred in Vancouver. After adjustment for the differences in age and sex between the populations, the relative risk of being a victim of homicide in Seattle was found to be 1.63 (95% confidence interval, 1.28 to 2.08). When homicides were subdivided by the mechanism of death, the rate of homicide by knives and other weapons (excluding firearms) in Seattle was almost identical to Vancouver. All of the increased risk of death from homicide in Seattle was due to a five- fold higher rate of homicide by firearms. Handguns accounted for 85% of the homicides involving firearms and were 4.8 times more likely to be used in homicides in Seattle. The risk for each racial or ethnic group was estimated with the use of the Mantel-Haenszel summary odds ratio. Similar rates of death by homicide were noted for whites in both cities, Asians in Seattle had higher rates of death by homicide. Blacks and Hispanics in Seattle had higher relative risks of death by homicide than those in Vancouver. These findings though, have confidence intervals that were very wide because of the small number of both minorities in Vancouver. Native Americans had the highest rates of death by homicide in both cities. Justifiable homicides accounted for less than 4% of the homicides in both cities during the study and exerted no significant effect on the previous findings. Since low-income populations have higher rates of homicide, socioeconomic status was stated as an important confounding factor in the comparison of the rates of homicide for racial and ethnic groups. In comparing rates of burglary, robbery, simple assault, and aggravated assault in Seattle and Vancouver, a slightly higher rate of simple and aggravated assault was observed in Seattle. This excess risk of assault in Seattle was explained by a seven-fold higher rate of assaults involving firearms.
AUTHORS' RECOMMENDATIONS:
It was argued that the data suggests that the restriction of citizens access to firearms is associated with lower rates of homicide. The findings according to the author, should be checked in other settings. Overall, the results suggested that a more restrictive handgun law may decrease national homicide rates.
EVALUATION:
This study was a methodologically sound and important study. Despite efforts to explain the differences in homicide rates between the cities with other variables introduced into the equation--non-firearm homicides and other crime rates, for example--the study still found that gun control was still the primary factor. This evidence lends strong support to the gun control argument. The authors did identify three limitations to the study: 1) measures of prevalence may not have precisely reflect availability of guns in the two cities (for example, it did not account for illegal weapons); 2) there may be other differences between the community, but because of their similarities on economic and other factors, this was unlikely, and 3) these findings may not be generalizable to other areas of the United States. Despite these limitations, this study lends strong support to the theory that gun control would decrease homicide rates and offers a good example of thorough methodology for further research. (CSPV Abstract - Copyright © 1992-2007 by the Center for the Study and Prevention of Violence, Institute of Behavioral Science, Regents of the University of Colorado)
N1 - Call Number: F-448, AB-448
KW - 1980s
KW - Washington
KW - Canada
KW - Countries Other Than USA
KW - Cross-National Analysis
KW - Firearms Control
KW - Robbery Rates
KW - Robbery Incidence and Prevalence
KW - Burglary Incidence and Prevalence
KW - Burglary Rates
KW - Crime Rates
KW - Crime Incidence and Prevalence
KW - Violence Incidence and Prevalence
KW - Violence Rates
KW - Homicide Rates
KW - Homicide Incidence and Prevalence
KW - Physical Assault Incidence and Prevalence
KW - Physical Assault Rates
KW - Firearms Crime
KW - Firearms Homicide
KW - Firearms Violence
KW - Violence Intervention
KW - Violence Prevention
KW - Crime Intervention
KW - Crime Prevention
KW - Legislation Effects
KW - Policy
Language: en |