Citation

Okpara U, Bier VM. Risk Anal. 2008; 28(6): 1583-1599.

Copyright

(Copyright © 2008, Society for Risk Analysis, Publisher John Wiley and Sons)

DOI

10.1111/j.1539-6924.2008.01133.x

PMID

unavailable

Abstract

In this article, we develop a model for the expected maximum hit probability of an attack on a commercial aircraft using MANPADS, as a function of the (random) location of the attacker. We also explore the sensitivity of the expected maximum hit probability to the parameters of the model, including both attacker parameters (such as weapon characteristics) and defender parameters (such as the size of the secure region around the airport). We conclude that having a large secure region around an airport offers some protection against MANPADS, and that installing onboard countermeasures reduces the success probability of a MANPADS attack.