Citation

Bétournay MC. Risk Anal. 2009; 29(10): 1355-1370.

Copyright

(Copyright © 2009, Society for Risk Analysis, Publisher John Wiley and Sons)

DOI

10.1111/j.1539-6924.2009.01267.x

PMID

unavailable

Abstract

The abandoned mine legacy is critical in many countries around the world, where mine cave‐ins and surface subsidence disruptions are perpetual risks that can affect the population, infrastructure, historical legacies, land use, and the environment. This article establishes abandoned metal mine failure risk evaluation approaches and quantification techniques based on the Canadian mining experience. These utilize clear geomechanics considerations such as failure mechanisms, which are dependent on well‐defined rock mass parameters. Quantified risk is computed using probability of failure (probabilistics using limit‐equilibrium factors of safety or applicable numerical modeling factor of safety quantifications) times a consequence impact value. Semi‐quantified risk can be based on failure‐case‐study‐based empirical data used in calculating probability of failure, and personal experience can provide qualified hazard and impact consequence assessments. The article provides outlines for land use and selection of remediation measures based on risk.