Citation

Kantor P, Boros E. Risk Anal. 2010; 30(4): 663-673.

Copyright

(Copyright © 2010, Society for Risk Analysis, Publisher John Wiley and Sons)

DOI

10.1111/j.1539-6924.2010.01370.x

PMID

unavailable

Abstract

Detection of contraband depends on countermeasures, some of which involve examining cargo containers and/or their associated documents. Document screening is the least expensive, physical methods, such as gamma ray detection are more expensive, and definitive manual unpacking is most expensive. We cannot apply the full array of methods to all incoming cargoes, for budgetary reasons. We study the problem using principles of game theory, and find that best detection rates are achieved when the available budget is allocated between screening and definitive unpacking using a mixture of strategies that maximize detection rate and, further, serve to deceive opponents as to the specific tests to which contraband will be subjected. This yields increases of as much as 100% in detection, with essentially no increase in inspection cost.