Citation

Mohan D. Econ. Polit. Wkly. 1989; 24(51/52): 2829-2831.

Copyright

(Copyright © 1989, Sameeksha Trust)

DOI

unavailable

PMID

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Abstract

Transportation, like most other sectors of our national life, is considered to be mainly technology dependent. It is assumed that behavior of people is an invariant. Present road use patterns and those of the recent past are taken as models for the future. Little thought is given to the fact that people change their behavior when you change the environmental conditions. The basic attempt of the planners is to have more of the same a little more 'rationally'. There is no serious attempt to evolve an imaginative transport technology policy geared to our needs in the year 2000. This causes problems. For example, if rail passenger traffic is expected to double by 2000 AD and if we just plan to double the present railway capacity, then fifteen years from now we will have double the present number of passengers still traveling like sardines inside carriages and like sacrificial lambs on top of carriages. We must go beyond linear extrapolations of the present if we want a decent future. Therefore, if we expect demand to double, then we should plan at least two and a half times the present capacity if we want passengers to be comfortable and safe in the future.

Most plans underplay the role of non-motorized transport and bicycles. The possibility of introducing bicycle trailers and the like is not considered. The prospects of radical new designs in railways and bus transport are not debated. The human cost in the form of traffic accident deaths, disabilities and injuries is mentioned only in passing and an old but incorrect adage repeated "fault element accounts for a majority of road accidents". This concept of 'human error' being the main problem has been discredited the world over. Experience shows that small and simple improvements in road and vehicle designs makes the same people behave much more safely. Such ideas continue to be ignored.

We have exciting opportunities before us, and our new plans should attempt to be a little more daring in our approach to transportation for Bharat in the year 2000 AD. In the discussion that follows I will make two basic assumptions about the year 2000 AD: (1) At best, the per capita income in India will not increase more than a hundred per cent and at worst fifty per cent more than at present. (2) The income distribution in 2000 AD will only be a little better or worse than it is at present.