Citation

Tolan PH, Gorman-Smith D, Loeber R. J. Child Fam. Stud. 2000; 9(2): 203-220.

Copyright

(Copyright © 2000, Holtzbrinck Springer Nature Publishing Group)

DOI

10.1023/A:1009471021975

PMID

unavailable

Abstract

A longitudinal sample of 306 males were followed with annual interviews over 4 years to evaluate the role of the timing of onset of different types of disruptive behaviors in predicting later arrest rates. In particular, we applied the Developmental Pathways model to explain progressions from less serious to more serious behaviors and progression along three types of disruptive pathways defined as Overt, Covert, and Authority Conflict behaviors. Results indicated that the sequences and the prognostic properties hypothesized for the model were supported. Most youth showed a progression from behaviors expected to occur earlier to those expected to come later according to the model. In addition, these results showed that onset timing of most types of behavior as well as rapidity of reaching more serious behavior related to arrest rate. This cross-validation extends the model to a high risk inner-city population and to Latino youth. One notable exception to the general trend found was that violence did not always follow earlier involvement in less serious offenses and did not seem to show the same onset timing relation to risk for arrests. Social-ecological differences in the precipitants of violence in the inner-city compared to other developmental settings, as well as the possibility that multiple forms of violence have differing underlying causes, may explain this exception. The model's generality suggests it has utility for guiding and discriminating risk better than simply noting the frequency, seriousness, or onset timing of delinquency.