Citation

Beard AN. Fire Safety J. 1983; 6(2): 121-128.

Copyright

(Copyright © 1983, Elsevier Publishing)

DOI

unavailable

PMID

unavailable

Abstract

In an earlier work, a stochastic model for the number of deaths resulting from a fire was put forward. A general structure was described and the particular case of flaming ignition on a bed in a hospital ward was considered. The type of ward looked at was of 'Nightingale' design and it was regarded as housing thirty patients. It was stressed that the ideas were put forward in a tentative sense and that many of the assumptions made were not firmly based.In the present work, similar assumptions have been made but the ward is considered to be composed of five bays, each containing six beds. The intention has been to compare the results for the two arrangements, given that similar assumptions have been made in the calculations. It was found that for the bay arrangement, the likelihood of multiple fatalities resulting from an ignition is more than double that for the Nightingale arrangement. However, for 500 simulated sequences, the mean number of fatalities for the bay case is approximately half that for the Nightingale case. These conclusions are based on particular conceptual and numerical assumptions and this must not be forgotten. The output from mathematical models will reflect the input. In general, models of all kinds must be regarded with circumspection. A technique such as that described here should only be used as part of an overall systemic approach; it should not be used to replace such an approach itself.