Citation

Spearpoint MJ, MacLennan HA. Safety Sci. 2012; 50(8): 1675-1684.

Copyright

(Copyright © 2012, Elsevier Publishing)

DOI

10.1016/j.ssci.2011.12.019

PMID

unavailable

Abstract

The functional capability of building occupants to egress from buildings is likely to change as populations age and become less fit. A review of the current health literature suggests obesity can be used to determine the likely reduction in walking speed and also as a marker for other egress related factors such as the risk of falls. This paper examines the possible effects of gender, age and obesity and uses a Monte Carlo network evacuation model to examine whether these changes will significantly increase the total evacuation time from an exemplar high-rise building. Modelling results suggest that total evacuation times may increase by up to 20% when comparing historical data from Canada in 1971 with a future New Zealand scenario for 2031.