Citation

Chen CC, Chen LC, Wen BS, Liu SH, Ma H. J. Trauma Acute Care Surg. 2012; 73(6): 1583-1589.

Affiliation

From the Division of Plastic and Reconstructive Surgery (C.-C.C., H.M.), Department of Surgery, Taipei Veterans General Hospital and National Yang-Ming University, Taipei City; and Department of Statistics (L.-C.C., B.-S.W., S.-H.L.), Tamkang University, New Taipei City, Taiwan.

Copyright

(Copyright © 2012, Lippincott Williams and Wilkins)

DOI

10.1097/TA.0b013e318265ff5a

PMID

23032811

Abstract

BACKGROUND: This study aimed to develop an objective model for predicting mortality after burn injury in Taiwan. METHODS: From 1997 to 2010, 23,147 patients with acute burn injury in 44 hospitals were retrospectively reviewed. Variables examined were age, sex, depth and extent of burn, inhalation injury, flushing time, hospital admission and referral status, intensive care unit admission, and mortality. Logistic regression analyses were used to evaluate risk factors. Model performance and calibration was evaluated by measures of discrimination and goodness-of-fit statistic, respectively. A nomogram of four major risk factors was used to calculate the probability of mortality. RESULTS: Only 22,665 patients (mean [SD] age, 31.05 [22.67] years; mean second-degree and third-degree burn sizes, 8.67% [10.64%] and 3.25% [10.91%], respectively) survived until discharge, for a mortality rate of 2.08%. CONCLUSION: Burn depth is an important predictive factor for mortality. An objective model can help estimate the probability of death in acute burn injury. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: Prognostic study, level II.

Language: en