Citation

Gankhuyag D. Mong. J. Demogr. 1996; 1(1): 43-51.

Copyright

(Copyright © 1996, Population Teaching and Research Center, National University of Mongolia)

DOI

unavailable

PMID

12292309

Abstract

Several different scenarios are used to project population for Mongolia during 1989-99 and during 1999-2019. The author states that the most important determinant of future population size and structure is fertility, followed by mortality. Mongolia is expected to have a population in the year 2019 ranging from 2.97 million to 3.07 million, depending upon the assumptions made. Total population in 1995 was 2.34 million. Population density is one of the lowest in the world. The crude death rate, beginning with the 1960s, showed the most significant decline from 12.3 to 7.3. Life expectancy at birth has made only modest gains over the past 25 years. Mortality is extremely high for infants and children. Mortality during the adult years is high for women and low for men. The most significant feature of fertility decline since 1989 is the abortion rate, which was 62.9/1000 women and 511.5/1000 births. The size of the population at the turn of the century is expected to be under 2.5 million. Major changes will take place in the future age structure of population. There will be an increased proportion of population aged 15-64 years and a decline in the proportion of people of younger age. The most probable scenario assumes a modified exponential trend to mortality and a linear change in fertility from 2.3 children/woman in 1999 to 1.92 in 2019. The annual growth in the labor force is expected to be 3.28% annually until the first decades after the year 2000, when growth will slow to 2.6% annually. Population growth will be 1.2%. The proportion not in the labor force will decline from 32.2% to 28.1% during 1989-2019. The impact of future population size on education is also estimated by educational level, enrollment rate, teachers, and classrooms.

Language: en