Citation

Cassidy LD, Cook A, Ertl A, Gourlay D, Osler T. J. Pediatr. Surg. 2014; 49(1): 189-192.

Affiliation

University of Vermont.

Copyright

(Copyright © 2014, Elsevier Publishing)

DOI

10.1016/j.jpedsurg.2013.09.055

PMID

24439607

Abstract

BACKGROUND/PURPOSE: Researchers are constantly challenged to identify optimal mortality risk adjustment methodologies that perform accurately in pediatric trauma patients. This study evaluated the new Trauma Mortality Prediction Model (TMPM-ICD-9) in pediatric trauma patients. METHODS: Data were analyzed on 107,104 pediatric trauma patients included in the NTDB® in 2010 who had both a valid ISS and probability of death using TMPM-ICD-9. Discrimination was compared using the area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUC) and by age, blunt vs penetrating, intent, Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS), and number of injuries. RESULTS: The AUC for TMPM-ICD-9 demonstrated excellent discrimination in predicting mortality versus ISS overall, 11 to 17years of age (0.96 vs 0.93), by injury type, intent, and in the lowest GCS scores. The TMPM-ICD-9 showed superior discrimination over ISS in patients with more than two injuries. CONCLUSIONS: The TMPM demonstrated superior discrimination compared to ISS. The TMPM shows promise of a much needed and simple to use risk adjustment tool with application to both adult and pediatric patients. Researchers should continue to validate this tool in robust pediatric data sets.

Language: en