Citation

Coulter HT. Transp. Res. Rec. 1977; 634: 20-26.

Copyright

(Copyright © 1977, Transportation Research Board, National Research Council, National Academy of Sciences USA, Publisher SAGE Publishing)

DOI

unavailable

PMID

unavailable

Abstract

This report describes and compares two large-scale economic-forecasting models--the multiregional input-output model developed by Polenske and the multiregional, multi-industry forecasting model developed by Harris--to examine their usefulness for transportation planning at national, state and local levels. The models use fundamentally different methods of economic forecasting, and thus have different appropriate applications. Both the Polenske and the Harris models are currently used in analyzing regional economic activity by industrial sectors. A basic difference is that the Polenske model is used mainly for analyzing the effects of changes in interindustry trade flows between regions, whereas the Harris model is used mainly in forecasting regional growth and evaluating effects of alternative highway and other transportation systems. The Polenske model provides a framework for describing and analyzing the sales and purchases of all industries in every region of the economy and has been used to analyze the role of trade in the economic growth of particular regions, such as the California-Oregon-Washington region, as compared to the rest of the United States. The Harris model is designed to make both short-run and long-run forecasts of economic growth. Because it provides a frame-work for analyzing interindustry purchases, it has been used to evaluate the regional economic and environmental effects of alternative highway systems.