Citation

Busch AC, Colamosca B, Hunter JS, Polhemus NW. Transp. Res. Rec. 1980; 768: 24-28.

Copyright

(Copyright © 1980, Transportation Research Board, National Research Council, National Academy of Sciences USA, Publisher SAGE Publishing)

DOI

unavailable

PMID

unavailable

Abstract

To assess the safety and risk of current and proposed air traffic control route-separation standards, it is necessary to estimate the frequency of occurrence of extremely rare events. Since direct estimates of collision risk from historical data require sample periods that are unacceptably long, alternative methods are necessary. This article describes a probabilistic model for collision risk and its use in the North Atlantic airspace; it includes a discussion of sequential testing designed to determine whether current navigational performance meets a specified target level of safety.