Citation

Lloyd L, Wallbank C, Broughton J, Cuerden R. J. Transp. Saf. Secur. 2017; 9(Suppl 1): 149-177.

Copyright

(Copyright © 2017, Southeastern Transportation Center, and Beijing Jiaotong University, Publisher Informa - Taylor and Francis Group)

DOI

10.1080/19439962.2016.1228091

PMID

unavailable

Abstract

Many of the 1.24 million deaths on the roads each year occur in emerging markets such as Malaysia and Brazil. Vehicle safety is not yet fully established in these countries and vehicle use is growing quickly, leading to increasing casualties. If vehicle safety regulations and consumer testing programs, similar to those in Europe, were introduced then casualty savings could be accelerated. Malaysia and Brazil have progressed this with the introduction of Asean and Latin New Car Assessment Programme (NCAP), respectively; this study aims to quantify the benefits of also applying secondary safety regulations, such as those applied in Europe, to emerging markets. Statistical modelling is used to estimate the secondary safety benefits observed in Great Britain due to the introduction of regulations and Euro NCAP. These casualty savings are then applied to the predicted number of casualties in the emerging markets, based on the current vehicle safety situation and casualty rate trends. The results show that, if car secondary safety improvements are transferred to the Malaysian vehicle fleet, between 1,200 and 4,300 car-user fatalities could be prevented between 2015 and 2030. In Brazil it is estimated that between 12,500 and 34,200 fatalities could be saved over the same time period.

Language: en