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Abstract
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Goerlandt and Reniers (2016) make some comments about the following scheme for qualitatively assessing the strength of the background knowledge of quantitative risk assessments (QRAs), described by Flage and Aven (2009, pp. 13-14):
'To reflect uncertainty factors like the ones described above we suggest a semi-quantitative method as presented by Aven (2008); adjusted to include consideration of both risk and vulnerability. In Table 1 uncertainty factors are analysed with respect to effect on risk and vulnerability. The effect on risk and vulnerability depends on two dimensions:
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Degree of uncertainty.
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Sensitivity of the relevant risk and/or vulnerability indices to changes in the uncertain quantities.
For example, a high degree of uncertainty combined with high sensitivity could lead to the conclusion that the uncertainty factor has a significant effect on risk. However, if the degree of uncertainty is high but the risk and/or vulnerability indices are relatively insensitive to changes in the uncertain quantities, then the effect on risk could be minor or moderate. The category classifications (minor, moderate, significant) will be case-specific and subject to judgement by the analyst, but the following descriptions could serve as a guideline...
Language: en |