Citation

Caspi A, Houts RM, Belsky DW, Harrington H, Hogan S, Ramrakha S, Poulton R, Moffitt TE. Nat. Hum. Behav. 2016; 1(ePub): ePub.

Affiliation

Social, Genetic, & Developmental Psychiatry Research Centre, Institute of Psychiatry, Psychology, & Neuroscience, King's College London, England.

Copyright

(Copyright © 2016, Holtzbrinck Springer Nature Publishing Group)

DOI

10.1038/s41562-016-0005

PMID

28706997

PMCID

PMC5505663

Abstract

Policy-makers are interested in early-years interventions to ameliorate childhood risks. They hope for improved adult outcomes in the long run, bringing return on investment. How much return can be expected depends, partly, on how strongly childhood risks forecast adult outcomes. But there is disagreement about whether childhood determines adulthood. We integrated multiple nationwide administrative databases and electronic medical records with the four-decade Dunedin birth-cohort study to test child-to-adult prediction in a different way, by using a population-segmentation approach. A segment comprising one-fifth of the cohort accounted for 36% of the cohort's injury insurance-claims; 40% of excess obese-kilograms; 54% of cigarettes smoked; 57% of hospital nights; 66% of welfare benefits; 77% of fatherless childrearing; 78% of prescription fills; and 81% of criminal convictions. Childhood risks, including poor age-three brain health, predicted this segment with large effect sizes. Early-years interventions effective with this population segment could yield very large returns on investment.

Language: en