Hjerrild M, Videbaek S, Theisen D, Malisoux L, Oestergaard Nielsen R. Phys. Ther. Sport 2018; 32: 121-125.
Affiliation
Department of Public Health, Section of Sport Science, Aarhus University, Dalgas Avenue 4, Room 438, 8000 Aarhus C, Denmark. Electronic address: Roen@ph.au.dk.
OBJECTIVE: To discuss the interpretability of non-causal associations to sports injury development exemplified via the relationship between navicular drop (ND) and running-related injury (RRI) in novice runners using neutral shoes.
DESIGN: 1-year prospective cohort study. SETTING: Denmark. PARTICIPANTS: 926 novice runners, representing 1852 feet, were included. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: The outcome was "a musculoskeletal complaint of the lower extremity or back caused by running, which restricted the amount of running for at least a week".
RESULTS: Fewer feet with small ND than those feet with a reference ND sustained injuries at 50 (risk difference (RD) = -4.1% [95%CI = -7.9%;-0.4%]) and 100 km (RD = -5.3% [95%CI = -9.9%;-0.7%]). Similarly, fewer feet with a large ND sustained injuries than the feet with a reference drop at 250 (RD = -7.6% [95%CI = -14.9%;-0.3%]) and 500 km (RD = -9.8% [95%CI = -19.1%;-0.4%]).
CONCLUSION: Non-causal associations can help to identify sub-groups of athletes at an increased or decreased risk of sports injury. Based on the current results, those with a small or large navicular drop sustain fewer injuries than those with a reference drop. Importantly, navicular drop does not cause RRIs, but influences the relationship between training load and RRI. This illustrates that non-causal associations are unsuitable to respond to the question: Why do sports injury develop?