Citation

Hamill ME, Hernandez MC, Bailey KR, Zielinski MD, Matos MA, Schiller HJ. J. Am. Coll. Surg. 2019; 228(1): 1-8.

Affiliation

Division of Trauma, Critical Care, and General Surgery, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, Minnesota.

Copyright

(Copyright © 2019, American College of Surgeons, Publisher Elsevier Publishing)

DOI

10.1016/j.jamcollsurg.2018.08.694

PMID

30359832

Abstract

BACKGROUND: Over the last 30 years public opinion and state level legislation regarding the concealed carry of firearms have shifted dramatically. Prior studies of potential effects have yielded mixed results, making policy recommendations difficult. We investigated whether liberalization of state level concealed carry legislation was associated with a change in the rates of homicide or other violent crime. STUDY DESIGN: Data on violent crime and homicide rates were collected from the U.S. Department of Justice Uniform Crime Reporting Program (UCR) and Center for Disease Control (CDC) over 30 years from 1986-2015. State level concealed carry legislation was evaluated each study year on a scale including 'no carry', 'may issue', 'shall issue' and 'unrestricted carry'. Data was analyzed using general multiple linear regression models with the log event rate as the dependent variable, and an autoregressive correlation structure was assumed with generalized estimating equation (GEE) estimates for standard errors.

RESULTS: During the study period all states moved to adopt some form of concealed carry legislation, with a trend towards less restrictive legislation. After adjusting for state and year, there was no significant association between shifts from restrictive to non-restrictive carry legislation on violent crime and public health indicators. Adjusting further for poverty and unemployment did not significantly influence the results.

CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrates no statistically significant association between the liberalization of state level firearm carry legislation over the last 30 years and the rates of homicides or violent crime. Policy efforts aimed at injury prevention and the reduction of firearm related violence should likely investigate other targets for potential intervention.

Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Language: en