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Citation |
Van den Berg M, van Nes R, Hoogendoorn S. Transp. Res. Rec. 2018; 2672(1): 161-170. |
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Affiliation |
1Delft University of Technology, Faculty of Civil Engineering and Geosciences, Delft, the Netherlands Corresponding Author: Address correspondence to Mignon Van den Berg: mignon_berg@hotmail.com This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 License (http://www.creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/) which permits non-commercial use, reproduction and distribution of the work without further permission provided the original work is attributed as specified on the SAGE and Open Access pages (https://us.sagepub.com/en-us/nam/open-access-at-sage). |
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Copyright |
(Copyright © 2018, Transportation Research Board, National Research Council, National Academy of Sciences USA, Publisher SAGE Publishing) |
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DOI |
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PMID |
unavailable |
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Abstract |
Insight into factors influencing the choices people make in case of an evacuation from a natural disaster can help governments and emergency management personnel to manage people in case of such a situation. One of the aspects that influences the choices that people make in such a situation is herding. Since herding has not been quantified, this paper focuses on quantifying the effect of herding on the decision to evacuate by using an experimental setup that is based on the serious game Everscape. Around 400 people participated in 13 experiments with this setup. Choice models were estimated with the data from these experiments by including observable characteristics of herding as an attribute into the utility function. It is concluded that an important step is made in quantifying herding. It is shown that the more people someone sees leaving, the more inclined this person is to leave. Seeing people leave has more impact than seeing people stay. When people have no information from official sources, they tend to use other people as a source of information. In case of a disaster, this might result in following people who make the situation even more dangerous (for themselves and possibly for others as well). The information provided by official sources is therefore essential in managing people in the best possible way in case of a natural disaster. Language: en |