Citation

Haque MO, Haque TH. Transp. Res. A Policy Pract. 2018; 118: 594-607.

Copyright

(Copyright © 2018, Elsevier Publishing)

DOI

10.1016/j.tra.2018.08.017

PMID

unavailable

Abstract

The main objective of this study is to evaluate the effects of the Road Safety System Approach on serious road casualties: fatalities and serious injuries in Brunei (target group), using the Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Intervention Time Series Analysis methods with control group. Control group is used to consider the influences of other factors which have been eliminated prior to estimating the net effect of the Road Safety System Approach for the target group relative to the control group. It is found that a significant reduction in serious road casualties of 30% was achieved for the first 12-months after the introduction of the Road Safety System Approach through the reformed road safety initiatives in Brunei. This shows that Brunei's road safety record is now similar to other high road safety performing countries. Brunei can also now be considered as a model for the trajectory of road safety in the entire South East Asian region.

Language: en

Keywords

ARIMA and intervention time series analysis models; Brunei; Forecasting; Road serious casualties; Safety system