Citation

Robinson RM, Collins AJ, Jordan CA, Foytik P, Khattak AJ. Int. J. Disaster Risk Reduct. 2018; 31: 1159-1165.

Copyright

(Copyright © 2018, Elsevier Publishing)

DOI

10.1016/j.ijdrr.2017.09.013

PMID

unavailable

Abstract

Traffic incidents occurring during large-scale evacuations have been suspected of causing potentially severe delays. Previous work using mesoscopic simulations suggested that while incidents may substantially extend evacuation times for those immediately impacted, overall evacuation times for all evacuees were not significantly increased. Using highly detailed, dynamic transportation micro-simulation with greater realism and accuracy, this study assessed the impact of traffic incidents on two hypothetical hurricane evacuations from a coastal city in the United States. Six evacuation scenarios were tested with up to 143,000 evacuees and 800,000 background vehicles simulated over a 24-hour period. Scenarios included from 35 to 48 traffic incidents with locations, rates, severities, and durations based on both historical values for peak period traffic and estimates based on total vehicle miles traveled per road segment. The impacts of simulated traffic incidents, assigned to match one of three severity levels, were modeled by temporary reductions in affected lane segment capacities and reductions in vehicle speeds for other lanes in the segment. Work supports findings that while traffic incidents significantly extend the travel time of those involved, the total time required for all evacuees to clear the evacuating area is only marginally impacted. The findings also show that the time incidents occur relative to current and immediately following traffic may significantly impact evacuation clearance times for comparatively short periods.

Language: en

Keywords

Accidents; Disaster; Evacuations; Hurricane; Incidents; Simulation