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Citation |
Pendakur VS. Transp. Res. Rec. 1992; 1372: 3-10. |
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Copyright |
(Copyright © 1992, Transportation Research Board, National Research Council, National Academy of Sciences USA, Publisher SAGE Publishing) |
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DOI |
unavailable |
PMID |
unavailable |
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Abstract |
China's population was 1.1 billion in 1990; it is expected to reach 1.3 billion by 2000. Its urban population was 33% in 1990 and is expected to grow to 47% by 2000. This enormous urban growth poses tremendous challenges to urban transportation planners. The five magacities--Beijing, Shanghai, Shenyang, Tianjin, and Wuhan--are planning for light rail transit/subway (LRT/MRT) systems that will cost $10 billion to $15 billion (U.S. dollars). However, China does not have the money and will depend on foreign aid and borrowing. Concurrently planners disagree about the appropriate role of motorized and nonmotorized transportation, especially the bicycle: some wish to abolish, restrict, or redirect it, and others wish to expand its systems role. The global LRT/MRT experience suggests that such systems are expensive and take a long time to build. Forecasting systems for cost and ridership are unreliable; actual costs are more than two or three times the forecast. The urban transportation trends and issues in China are discussed on the basis of a very diverse array of data research sources. The analysis includes mode splits, costs, and reliability functions, and their applicability to Chinese cities. It proposes a strategic planning framework for Chinese urban areas, focusing on optimum modal mixes, investment and regulatory policies, and transportation system management. Although the framework has been developed particularly for China, it is generally applicable to other low-income countries in Asia. Language: en |