Citation

Talley WK, Becker AJ. Transp. Res. Rec. 1987; 1108: 22-26.

Copyright

(Copyright © 1987, Transportation Research Board, National Research Council, National Academy of Sciences USA, Publisher SAGE Publishing)

DOI

unavailable

PMID

unavailable

Abstract

In spite of the seemingly strong support for research in on-time performance of bus service, previous research has largely been informal with little statistical basis. In this paper, it is concluded that the distribution of late and early time intervals between actual and scheduled time arrivals for buses at bus stops on a particular route conforms to the exponential probability distribution. The probability equation of the distribution can be used to compute the probability or percentage of buses arriving at a given bus stop that will be more than x minutes early or more than y minutes late. These probabilities may be interpreted as failure rates. The probability equation allows flexibility in interpreting results and setting standards for on-time performance.

Record URL:
http://onlinepubs.trb.org/Onlinepubs/trr/1987/1108/1108-003.pdf

Language: en

Keywords

MOTOR BUS TRANSPORTATION; PROBABILITY; SCHEDULING - Mathematical Models