Citation

Fernández-Fontelo A, Cabaña A, Joe H, Puig P, Moriña D. Stat. Med. 2019; ePub(ePub): ePub.

Affiliation

Barcelona Graduate School of Mathematics, Departament de Matemàtiques, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, Bellaterra, Spain.

Copyright

(Copyright © 2019, John Wiley and Sons)

DOI

10.1002/sim.8306

PMID

31359489

Abstract

Underreporting in gender-based violence data is a worldwide problem leading to the underestimation of the magnitude of this social and public health concern. This problem deteriorates the data quality, providing poor and biased results that lead society to misunderstand the actual scope of this domestic violence issue. The present work proposes time series models for underreported counts based on a latent integer autoregressive of order 1 time series with Poisson distributed innovations and a latent underreporting binary state, that is, a first-order Markov chain. Relevant theoretical properties of the models are derived, and the moment-based and maximum-based methods are presented for parameter estimation. The new time series models are applied to the quarterly complaints of domestic violence against women recorded in some judicial districts of Galicia (Spain) between 2007 and 2017. The models allow quantifying the degree of underreporting. A comprehensive discussion is presented, studying how the frequency and intensity of underreporting in this public health concern are related to some interesting socioeconomic and health indicators of the provinces of Galicia (Spain).

© 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Language: en

Keywords

integer autoregressive models; intimate partner violence; public health; state-dependent underreporting; underrecorded data