Citation

Yu J, Xiao H, Yang W, Dellicour S, Kraemer MUG, Liu Y, Cai J, Huang ZX, Zhang Y, Feng Y, Huang W, Zhang H, Gilbert M, Tian H. Transbound. Emerg. Dis. 2020; ePub(ePub): ePub.

Affiliation

State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China.

Copyright

(Copyright © 2020, John Wiley and Sons)

DOI

10.1111/tbed.13600

PMID

32348020

Abstract

Human rabies is a public health problem in Asia, especially in less developed regions where the disease is under-reported because of a lack of epidemiological surveillance. To address this gap, we collected data on human rabies in Yunnan Province, China, between 2005 and 2016. Using statistical mapping techniques, we correlated the occurrence of human rabies to environmental (elevation, precipitation, normalized difference vegetation index [NDVI], temperature, and distance to the nearest main rivers) and anthropogenic (human and dog population density, distance to the nearest main roads, and gross domestic product [GDP]) factors. We used a performance score, the average area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (0.88), to validate our risk model. Using this model, we found that environmental factors were more strongly associated with human rabies occurrence than anthropogenic factors. Areas with elevation below 2000 meters, GDP per capita between $750-$4500/year, and NDVI below 0.07 were associated with greater risk of human rabies. Rabies control in China should specifically target these areas.

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Language: en

Keywords

China; dog rabies; human rabies; suitability; surveillance; transportation corridors