Citation

McFayden CB, Woolford DG, Stacey A, Boychuk D, Johnston JM, Wheatley MJ, Martell DL. Int. J. Wildland Fire 2020; 29(1): 28-41.

Copyright

(Copyright © 2020, International Association of Wildland Fire, Fire Research Institute, Publisher CSIRO Publishing)

DOI

10.1071/WF19084

PMID

unavailable

Abstract

This study presents a model developed using a risk-based framework that is calibrated by experts, and provides a spatially explicit measure of need for aerial detection daily in Ontario, Canada. This framework accounts for potential fire occurrence, behaviour and impact as well as the likelihood of detection by the public. A three-step assessment process of risk, opportunity and tolerance is employed, and the results represent the risk of not searching a specified area for the detection of wildland fires. Subjective assessment of the relative importance of these factors was elicited from Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources and Forestry experts to develop an index that captures their behaviour when they plan aerial detection patrol routes. The model is implemented to automatically produce a province-wide, fine-scale risk index map each day. A retrospective analysis found a statistically significant association between points that aerial detection patrols passed over and their aerial detection demand index values: detection patrols were more likely to pass over areas where the index was higher.

Language: en