Citation

Berg WD. Transp. Res. Rec. 1986; 1069: 88-100.

Copyright

(Copyright © 1986, Transportation Research Board, National Research Council, National Academy of Sciences USA, Publisher SAGE Publishing)

DOI

unavailable

PMID

unavailable

Abstract

A significant portion of recent research on rail-highway grade crossings has focused on the development of effectiveness ratios for various improvement actions and the incorporation of accident history into accident prediction and resource allocation procedures. Data are presented to demonstrate that these procedures can introduce significant bias and lead to a misallocation of resources. A preferred procedure is to use a modeling approach to estimate expected accident reductions and to ignore the adjustment of predicted accident rate based on recent accident history. The latter adjustment is shown to represent a modeling of the regression-to-the-mean phenomenon and as such is not appropriate for resource allocation studies.

Language: en

Keywords

RAILROAD PLANT AND STRUCTURES; ROADS AND STREETS - Accident Prevention