Citation

Chen SS, Yu M, Zhou MG, Zhou CL, Xiao YZ, Huang B, Xu YJ, Zhao L, Hu JX, Xu XJ, Liu T, Xiao JP, Zeng WL, Guo LC, Li X, Ma WJ. Zhonghua Liu Xing Bing Xue Za Zhi 2021; 42(8): 1445-1452.

Vernacular Title

基于体感温度-寿命损失年暴露反应关系确定体感温度的健康风险预警阈值研究

Copyright

(Copyright © 2021, Zhonghua yi xue hui)

DOI

10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20200625-00884

PMID

34814566

Abstract

OBJECTIVE: To identify the threshold of a health warning system based on the association of apparent temperature and years of life lost (YLL).

METHODS: Daily mortality records and meteorological data were collected from 364 Chinese counties for 2006-2017. Distributed lag nonlinear model and multivariate Meta-analyses were applied to estimate the association between the apparent temperature and YLL rate. A regression tree model was employed to estimate the warning thresholds of the apparent temperature. Stratified analyses were further conducted by age and cause of death.

RESULTS: The daily YLL rate was 23.6/10(5). The mean daily apparent temperature was 15.7 ℃. U-shaped nonlinear associations were observed between apparent temperature and YLL rate. The actual temperature-caused YLL rate for the elderly was higher than the young population. The daily excess deaths rate increased with the higher effect levels.

CONCLUSIONS: Regression tree model was employed to define the warning threshold for meteorological health risk. The present study provides theoretical support for the weather-related health warning system.

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目的

基于体感温度-寿命损失年（YLL）暴露反应关系确定体感温度的健康风险预警阈值，为气象健康预警提供科学依据。
方法

收集2006-2017年全国364个区（县）逐日死亡数据和气象数据。采用分布非线性滞后模型和多变量Meta分析方法分析体感温度与YLL率的暴露反应关系。基于该暴露反应关系，采用回归决策树模型确定体感温度的健康风险预警阈值。本研究按不同死因中不同年龄组进行分层分析。
结果

研究期间总人群平均每日YLL率为23.6人年/10万，日均体感温度为15.7 ℃。不同人群体感温度与YLL率暴露反应关系均呈"U"形曲线，由体感温度导致老年人的YLL率远远高于年轻人。日均超额死亡数也随着风险等级的升高而上升。
结论

基于体感温度与YLL率的暴露反应关系，利用回归决策树模型确定体感温度的健康风险预警阈值，经验证预警效果良好。本研究为建立气象健康风险预警系统提供参考。

Language: zh

Keywords

Aged; Humans; Weather; Temperature; China/epidemiology; *Cold Temperature; *Hot Temperature; Nonlinear Dynamics