Citation

Doucette ML, McCourt AD, Crifasi CK, Webster DW. Am. J. Epidemiol. 2022; ePub(ePub): ePub.

Copyright

(Copyright © 2022, Oxford University Press)

DOI

10.1093/aje/kwac160

PMID

36104849

Abstract

The U.S. faces rapidly rising rates of violent crime committed with firearms. This study sought to estimate the impact of changes to laws that regulate the concealed carrying of weapons (CCW laws) on violent crimes committed with a firearm. We used augmented synthetic control models and random-effect, meta-analyses to estimate the state-specific effects and the average effect of adopting Shall-Issue CCW permitting laws on rates of homicides involving a gun, homicides by other means, aggravated assaults with a gun and with a knife, and robberies with a gun and with a knife. The average effects were stratified by the presence or absence of several Shall-Issue permit provisions. Shall-Issue CCW law adoption was associated with a 9.5% increase in rates of assaults with firearms during the first 10-years post-law adoption and associated with an 8.8% increase in rates of homicides by other means. When Shall-Issue laws allowed violent misdemeanants to acquire CCW permits, the laws were associated with higher rates of gun assaults. Adopting a Shall-Issue CCW law has likely increased non-fatal violent crime committed with firearms. Harmful effects of Shall-Issue laws are most clear when provisions intended to reduce risks associated with civilian gun carrying are absent.

Language: en

Keywords

Firearm violence; health policy evaluation; synthetic control method