Citation

Won D, Do MS, Kim GH. J. Korean Soc. Transp. 2022; 40(2): 147-160.

Vernacular Title

시스템 다이내믹스를 활용한 교통문화지수 변화 시나리오 분석

Copyright

(Copyright © 2022, Korean Society of Transportation)

DOI

10.7470/jkst.2022.40.2.147

PMID

unavailable

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to develop a traffic culture diffusion model using the system dynamics analysis technique used to structure and analyze complex social phenomena, and to perform scenario analysis on changes in the traffic culture index. The diffusion model was built based on the Bass Diffusion Model, which has a theoretical basis, and focused on deriving the innovation coefficient and the imitation coefficient by reflecting two types of diffusion by innovation and diffusion by imitation in the model. The vehicle technology level variable was considered as the diffusion factor by innovation, and the traffic safety investment variable was considered as the diffusion factor by imitation. In consideration of these two variables, a scenario analysis was performed on how the future traffic culture index will change. In the diffusion model, the innovation coefficient was calculated as 0.0005 and the imitation coefficient as 0.03625. In the scenario analysis, in the case of the diffusion level of transportation culture by innovation according to the change in vehicle technology level, it was analyzed that the transportation culture index increased or decreased in the range of ±0.058% when the vehicle technology level changed by ±10%. As for the level of spread of traffic culture by innovation according to changes in traffic safety investment, it was analyzed that the traffic culture index increased or decreased in the range of ±0.26% when the traffic safety investment changed by ±10%. It is judged that the results of this study can be used to predict and respond to changes in the transportation culture index by local governments, etc. through additional research on factors that spread transportation culture in the future.

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본 논문의 목적은 복잡한 사회현상을 구조화하고 분석하는데 활용되고 있는 시스템 다이내믹스(System Dynamics) 분석기법을 이용해 교통문화 확산모형을 개발하고, 교통문화지수(Traffic Culture Index) 변화에 대한 시나리오 분석 수행하는 것이다. 확산모형은 이론적 근거를 갖고 있는 배스의 확산모형(Bass Diffusion Model)에 기초해 구축하였으며, 혁신에 의한 확산과 모방에 의한 확산, 2가지를 모형에 반영하여 혁신계수와 모방계수를 도출하는데 주안점을 두었다. 혁신에 의한 확산 요인으로는 차량기술수준 변수를, 모방에 의한 확산 요인으로는 교통안전투자 변수를 고려하였다. 이 2가지 변수를 고려해 향후 교통문화지수가 어떻게 변화하는지 시나리오 분석을 수행하였다. 확산모형에서 혁신계수는 0.0005, 모방계수는 0.03625로 산정되었다. 시나리오 분석에서는 차량기술수준 변화에 따른 교통문화 확산수준의 경우, 차량기술수준 ±10% 변화시 교통문화지수가 ±0.058% 범위에서 증감하는 것으로 분석되었다. 교통안전투자 변화에 따른 교통문화 확산수준은 교통안전투자 ±10% 변화시 교통문화지수가 약 ±0.26% 범위에서 증감하는 것으로 분석되었다. 본 연구의 결과는 향후 교통문화 확산요인에 관한 추가 연구를 통해 지자체 등에서 교통문화지수의 변화를 예측하고, 대응하는데 활용될 수 있을 것으로 판단된다.

Language: ko