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Citation |
Glas LM, Novak D. Transp. Res. Proc. 2022; 64: 34-43. |
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Copyright |
(Copyright © 2022, Elsevier Publications) |
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DOI |
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PMID |
unavailable |
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Abstract |
On typical missions for the Coast Guard, the Pilatus PC -9M aircraft operates at lower altitudes relatively far from shore. There are several circumstances due to which the aircrew must be forced to eject the aircraft using the ejection seat. If the ejection is successful and the aircrew has parachuted safely into the sea, search and rescue aircraft and vessels (SAR) should be dispatched to the accident site as soon as possible. However, in some situations, the location of the accident site is not precisely known, so a specific area should be searched to find and rescue the aircrew. Factors that affect the probability of aircrew survival in the sea after an ejection include sea and air temperature, wind, waves, and currents. Estimating the survivability of an aircrew at sea is a complex task that primarily involves estimating maximal survival time and time to rescue. The estimated survival time of a person (aircrew member) can be calculated using different models, each of which has certain advantages depending on the specifics. In this work, the survival probability of the aircrew was modelled using the Kaplan-Meier method, considering all the parameters that affect the survival probability, as well as the specific equipment of the aircrew. Three scenarios for the deployment and availability of SAR aircraft and vessels were defined, all realistic for the Croatian part of the Adriatic Sea and for the Ecological and Fisheries Protection Zone. The obtained results can be used as a guideline for the decision on the deployment and stationing of the search and rescue aircraft, but also for equipping all other aircraft and aircrews with special survival equipment in order to significantly increase the survival probability after an emergency ejection from the aircraft. Language: en |
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Keywords |
cold water imersion; ejection from the aircraft; survival probability; survival time |