Citation

Wang Y, Fu S. J. Marine Sci. Eng. 2022; 10(11): e1793.

Copyright

(Copyright © 2022, Australia New Zealand Marine Biotechnology Society, Publisher MDPI: Multidisciplinary Digital Publications Institute)

DOI

10.3390/jmse10111793

PMID

unavailable

Abstract

Accurately describing and evaluating the effects of unsafe acts on maritime accidents is critical to establishing practical accident prevention and control options. This paper proposes a framework for the probabilistic analysis of maritime accidents caused by seafarers’ unsafe acts by incorporating a navigation simulation and dynamic Bayesian network (DBN) modeling. First, the unsafe acts of seafarers are identified according to an in-depth analysis of global maritime investigation reports. Then, a navigation simulation experiment is designed to collect the ship-handling data of seafarers during hazardous accident scenarios. Consequently, a dynamic probabilistic model is proposed using a DBN to describe the phases of maritime accidents based on the navigation simulation experiment data. Furthermore, an evolution analysis of maritime accidents is conducted to explore the causal chain of such accidents through sensitivity analysis. The typical navigational accident-collision is chosen as the case to interpret the proposed framework, considering the formation process of ship collision risks, from the occurrence of ship collision risk (phase 1) to the close-quarters situation (phase 2) and to immediate danger (phase 3). This framework is applied to explore the causal chain of collision accidents caused by the unsafe acts of seafarers.

Language: en