Citation

Gao D, Xie W, Cao R, Lee EWM, Yuen RKK, Weng J. J. Saf. Sci. Resil. 2023; 4(1): 20-25.

Copyright

(Copyright © 2023, KeAi Communications, Publisher Elsevier Publishing)

DOI

10.1016/j.jnlssr.2022.09.003

PMID

unavailable

Abstract

Exit choice is essential for pedestrian safety and evacuation efficiency during the context of an emergency. Cumulative prospect theory is a widespread realistic decision-making theory that can transform choice outcomes and probabilities into subjective terms and integrate them as a parameter of cumulative prospect value (CPV), which determines the decision. The main contribution of this paper is the use of the CPV to predict exit choice. Furthermore, the different decision-making rules including Max, exponential(Expo), and Ratio (i.e., the three variable choice functions) were summarized and examined. This study used a confusion matrix to compare the predicted results with experimental data. Consequently, the parameters of Accuracy and F1-score showed that the predictions from Max and Expo were significantly more realistic while the results from Ratio were much more robust.

Language: en

Keywords

Cumulative prospect value; Decision-making behavior; Evacuation model; Exit choice