Citation

Goltz JD. Nat. Hazards Rev. 2023; 24(2): e03123003.

Copyright

(Copyright © 2023, American Society of Civil Engineers)

DOI

10.1061/NHREFO.NHENG-1697

PMID

unavailable

Abstract

The pioneering work of Dennis Mileti and those with whom he collaborated have established a sound basis in understanding how human beings behave when encountering hazard warnings. His work greatly expanded our understanding of the social environment into which warnings are issued and provided clear guidelines on how warnings should be delivered to optimize behavioral compliance; how warning message content can be construed to motivate protective actions; and why people may fail to comply or delay actions after receipt of a warning. This paper addresses Mileti's work in earthquake warnings, first in the context of earthquake predictions and later, as optimism waned that accurate earthquake predictions were possible, as his insights were applied to newer approaches in the form of earthquake early warnings and operational earthquake forecasting. This paper will first briefly trace the historical development of approaches to warn of a potentially damaging earthquake because it is important to place Mileti's work in the historical context in which it was carried out. It then assesses the manner in which the current methods of earthquake warning for short- and intermediate-term time frames via earthquake early warning and operational earthquake forecasting have benefited from Mileti's very significant observations and insights. His work in evaluating and clarifying the social environment in which warnings are issued is an important and enduring element of his legacy, has significantly influenced how hazard warnings are now formulated, and has greatly shaped the work of those of us who carry on the study of hazard warning systems.

Language: en