Citation

Tupper AC, Fearnley CJ. Nature 2023; 623(7987): 478-482.

Copyright

(Copyright © 2023, Holtzbrinck Springer Nature Publishing Group)

DOI

10.1038/d41586-023-03510-8

PMID

37968522

Abstract

Disasters associated with natural hazards are constantly in the headlines. Some involve predictable human-made factors, such as the catastrophic floods in Derna, Libya, in September, which were caused by the collapse of two dams after torrential rains. Others are unexpected, such as the eruption of volcano Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai in Tonga in January 2022, with a plume that reached a height of 57 kilometres1. That eruption caused a Pacific-wide tsunami and cut the country's undersea communication cables, shutting down national and international telephone and Internet traffic2.

In all cases, what turns natural hazards into disasters is their damaging effects on communities and ecosystems. These can often be avoided, or at least attenuated, through accurate forecasting of an event, advance warning to the relevant populations and well-prepared response plans.

In March 2022, the United Nations secretary general, António Guterres, announced an Early Warnings for All initiative backed by a US$3.1-billion investment over 5 years. The aim, he stated, is to ensure "everyone on Earth is protected from hazardous weather, water, or climate events through life-saving early warning systems by the end of 2027". This commitment is necessary, bold and ambitious. Here, we argue that it is also doomed to fail unless it is supported and implemented from well beyond the realms of the UN.

Early-warning actions are plagued by structural gaps. We call for a determined effort from the global scientific community to identify some of them -- and to help bridge them. National and local governments, international organizations, researchers, the private sector, operational staff, community workers and the public all have an essential part to play in the efficient running of early-warning systems. We contend that all actors need to take note of each others' contributions and be intentional about forming a collective effort. Better resources will follow, as well as improved hazard coverage and warnings that are more efficient and more inclusive...

Language: en

Keywords

Communication; Humans; Policy; Information technology; *Disaster Planning/methods/organization & administration/trends; *Disasters/prevention & control; *Natural Disasters/mortality; Scientific community; Society