Citation

Hirst WM, Mountain LJ, Maher MJ. Accid. Anal. Prev. 2004; 36(5): 717-727.

Affiliation

Department of Civil Engineering, University of Liverpool, Brownlow Street, Liverpool L69 3GQ, UK.

Copyright

(Copyright © 2004, Elsevier Publishing)

DOI

10.1016/j.aap.2003.05.005

PMID

15203349

Abstract

This paper considers the errors that arise in using outdated accident prediction models in road safety scheme evaluation. Methods to correct for regression-to-mean (RTM) effects in scheme evaluation normally rely on the use of accident prediction models. However, because accident risk tends to decline over time, such models tend to become outdated and the estimated treatment effect is then exaggerated. A new correction procedure is described which can effectively eliminate such errors.

Language: en