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Abstract
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We discuss the challenging task of forecasting the occurrence and magnitude of earthquakes.
On 6 February 2023, the world was aghast to learn the news that a 7.8-magnitude earthquake had hit Turkey and Syria. The quake was followed by a 7.5-magnitude event and more than 200 aftershocks, resulting in a catastrophic scale of destruction. As of the time of writing, more than 35,000 people are known to have died in what has become the world's deadliest quake in more than a decade -- and sadly, the death toll is still expected to rise.
Turkey has a long history of earthquakes as most of the region sits on the Anatolian tectonic plate between two major faults -- the North Anatolian Fault and the East Anatolian Fault1. The former is known to be particularly devastating and has caused disastrous quakes in the past, although the most recent quake is believed to have struck along the East Anatolia fault zone. Overall, according to the Disaster and Emergency Management Authority, from 1900 through 2019, more than 1,700 earthquakes with a magnitude of at least 5.0 have been recorded in Turkey; in 2019 alone, there were more than 23,000 quakes recorded, with 20 of them having a magnitude of at least 5.0.
The 6 February tragedy has left many wondering if, in a region substantially prone to earthquakes, such as Turkey, it would be possible to forecast their occurrence in order to plan appropriate evacuation strategies and thus avoid the potentially catastrophic consequences...
Language: en |