Citation

Li LY, Liu DF, Kang CL, Han YB. Acta Seismol. Sin. Engl. Ed. 2004; 17(5): 585-588.

Copyright

(Copyright © 2004, Seismological Society of China, Publisher Holtzbrinck Springer Nature Publishing Group)

DOI

unavailable

PMID

unavailable

Abstract

Considering the deficiency of using vague language in predicting monthly seismic tendency, we propose a numerical predicting method in the paper, which may be more applicable to the society. The method is based on the “self-rhythm” phenomenon of earthquake activities, which calculates monthly seismic tendency through nonlinear mathematical model. The result of modeling test shows that there exists a kind of seismic cyclic process of every 7 to 8 months in Chinese mainland, and the average error from comparing monthly predicted and observed earthquake magnitudes is below 0.2. Thus the method is more applicable to the society than the experiential prediction.

Language: en