Citation

Caceres D, Kulhanek P. Nat. Hazards 2000; 22(1): 49-69.

Copyright

(Copyright © 2000, Holtzbrinck Springer Nature Publishing Group)

DOI

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PMID

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Abstract

In this paper we have described the procedures used, input data applied and results achieved in our efforts to develop seismic hazard maps of Honduras. The probabilistic methodology of Cornell is employed. Numerical calculations were carried out by making use of the computer code SEISRISK III. To examine the impact of uncertainties in seismic and structural characteristics, the logic tree formalism has been used. We compiled a de-clustered earthquake catalogue for the region comprising 1919 earthquakes occurring during the period from 1963 to 1997. Unified moment magnitudes were introduced. Definition of a seismotectonic model of the whole region under review, based on geologic, tectonic and seismic information, led to the definition of seven seismogenetic zones for which seismic characteristics were determined. Four different attenuation models were considered. Results are expressed in a series of maps of expected PGA for 60% and 90% probabilities of nonexceedence in a 50-year interval which corresponds to return periods of 100 and 475 years, respectively. The highest PGA values of about 0.4g (90% probability of non-exceedence) are expected along the borders with Guatemala and El Salvador.