Citation

Adams WT. Highw. Res. Board bull. 1959; 230: 101-111.

Copyright

(Copyright © 1959, National Research Council (U.S.A.), Highway Research Board)

DOI

unavailable

PMID

unavailable

Abstract

Research was conducted to develop a relationship between the use of public and private transportation, and the principal factors influencing that use in urban areas to estimate what use would be made of each of these modes under each estimated set of influencing factors. A land use distribution factor was combined with factors relating to population, automobile ownership, employment, dwelling units, transit-service ratio, and urbanized area to develop a basis for forecasting modal use. Data acquired from home-interview origin-destination surveys were utilized. Travel mode use was studied in relation to the single and multiple, simple and compound dependent variable factors by multiple regression analysis methods. The factors examined from the origin-destination surveys were population, automobile ownership, trips to work, and total survey area. Among the compound factors investigated were population density, automobile ownership per capita, and employment per capita. The relationship was tested between travel modal split and combinations. An estimating equation was developed. The three factors that contribute the most in explaining the variance are those pertaining to: (1) transit-service ratio, (2) land-use distribution, and (3) the economic factor.

RESULTS indicate that this equation after modifying the land-use and transit-service ratio factors for the relationship between each home subdivision and the central business district, will probably forecast with acceptable accuracy the split between transit and automobile trips for each subdivision. Two items that apparently have more influence on the mode use within each subdivision than for the whole urban area are (1) the average ratio of over-all trip time by the two trans- portation modes, and (2) the ratio of commercial to industrial land use.