Citation

Clarke BBG. Stud. Conflict Terrorism 1993; 16(1): 25-50.

Copyright

(Copyright © 1993, Informa - Taylor and Francis Group)

DOI

10.1080/10576109308435917

PMID

unavailable

Abstract

This report analyzes the sources and nature of disputes/conflicts. It attempts to develop a model that allows one to categorize where one is in the development of a conflict. Within the discussion of this model, particular attention is devoted to hostilities and terminating a conflict on favorable terms. The key concept is that of incompatible national objectives. This incompatibility may lead to hostilities in which the aim is to apply military, economic, and political power in such a manner as to cause one opponent to change his political objectives to accommodate the others. The thrust of this report is the need to determine how to induce either the leader or some chosen political group in the opponent's government to want to change that nation's objectives so that the source of the conflict is eliminated, and then to take actions that cause that faction to have both the desire and ability to influence that change in objectives to occur. The analysis suggests that victory will result from the successful defense of one's own political and military centers of gravity combined with action that, at least indirectly, threatens the opponent's center(s) of gravity with the result being a change in objectives. The report examines the constraints that inhibited U.S. activities in the international arena prior to the end of the cold war. It concludes with a rational decisionmaking approach that establishes, and then seeks to achieve, "victory criteria." The author contends that the key to this process is the development of three critical pieces of guidance: (1) A clear statement by the political authorities of the desired situation in the post‐hostility and settlement phases--a vision of what the area should "look like" following the hostilities; (2) a clear set of political objectives that when achieved will allow the above vision to become reality; and (3) a set of military objectives that will, when achieved, allow the above to happen.

Language: en