Citation

Okeahalam C, Otwombe K. J. Transp. Secur. 2016; 9(3-4): 125-160.

Copyright

(Copyright © 2016, Holtzbrinck Springer Nature Publishing Group)

DOI

10.1007/s12198-016-0171-4

PMID

unavailable

Abstract

Maritime piracy is a phenomenon with implications for international trade. It is usually of two types: armed robbery and hijacking of vessels. This paper uses general estimating equations (GEE) modelling to assess factors that determine the risk of piracy attacks. We consider the impact which the level of economic and institutional development in a number of regions may have on the frequency and success and failure rates of piracy attacks. We find that the frequency of piracy attacks is higher in regions where the quality of institutions is low and that most attacks take place in close proximity to a port. We also find that successful attacks are most likely in regions that are poor and have low military capacity. The success rate of the hijacking version of piracy has no effect on the probability of the armed robbery form of piracy. In the horn of Africa and South-East Asia, the probability of piracy attacks decreases during the month of Ramadan. While in the short-term, military responses may have a role to play, long-term sustainable policy requires that this is combined with enhancement of economic opportunity, governance and human capital development.

Language: en