Citation

French S, Argyris N, Haywood SM, Hort MC, Smith JQ. Risk Anal. 2019; 39(1): 9-16.

Affiliation

Alan Turing Institute, and, Department of Statistics, University of Warwick, British Library, London, UK.

Copyright

(Copyright © 2019, Society for Risk Analysis, Publisher John Wiley and Sons)

DOI

10.1111/risa.12904

PMID

29059698

Abstract

In any crisis, there is a great deal of uncertainty, often geographical uncertainty or, more precisely, spatiotemporal uncertainty. Examples include the spread of contamination from an industrial accident, drifting volcanic ash, and the path of a hurricane. Estimating spatiotemporal probabilities is usually a difficult task, but that is not our primary concern. Rather, we ask how analysts can communicate spatiotemporal uncertainty to those handling the crisis. We comment on the somewhat limited literature on the representation of spatial uncertainty on maps. We note that many cognitive issues arise and that the potential for confusion is high. We note that in the early stages of handling a crisis, the uncertainties involved may be deep, i.e., difficult or impossible to quantify in the time available. In such circumstance, we suggest the idea of presenting multiple scenarios.

© 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

Language: en

Keywords

Crisis response; geographical risk; risk communication; scenario-focused thinking; spatiotemporal uncertainty