Citation

Andersson AK, Chapman L. Accid. Anal. Prev. 2011; 43(1): 284-289.

Affiliation

Göteborg University, Department of Earth Sciences Centre, Physical Geography, Box 460, 405 30 Göteborg, Sweden.

Copyright

(Copyright © 2011, Elsevier Publishing)

DOI

10.1016/j.aap.2010.08.025

PMID

21094326

Abstract

Winter weather can be a significant cause of road traffic accidents. This paper uses UKCIP climate change scenarios and a temporal analogue to investigate the relationship between temperature and severe road accidents in the West Midlands, UK. This approach also allows quantification of the changes in the severity of the winter season over the next century in the region. It is demonstrated that the predicted reduction in the number of frost days should in turn reduce the number of road accidents caused due to slipperiness by approximately 50%. However, the paper concludes by warning against complacency in winter maintenance regimes. A warmer climate may result in budget cuts for highway maintenance which in turn may well reverse declining accident trends.

Language: en