Citation

Junus NWM, Ismail MT. AIP Conf. Proc. 2014; 1605: 816-821.

Copyright

(Copyright © 2014, AIP Publishing)

DOI

10.1063/1.4887695

PMID

unavailable

Abstract

In this paper, the model for occurrence of road accidents in Malaysia between the years of 1970 to 2010 was developed and throughout this model the number of road accidents have been predicted by using the structural time series approach. The models are developed by using stepwise method and the residual of each step has been analyzed. The accuracy of the model is analyzed by using the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and the best model is chosen based on the smallest Akaike information criterion (AIC) value. A structural time series approach found that local linear trend model is the best model to represent the road accidents. This model allows level and slope component to be varied over time. In addition, this approach also provides useful information on improving the conventional time series method.

Language: en