Citation

Brocherie F, Girard O, Farooq A, Millet GP. Med. Sci. Sports Exerc. 2014; 47(2): 401-410.

Affiliation

1Institute of Sports Sciences, Department of Physiology, Faculty of Biology and Medicine, University of Lausanne, Switzerland; 2ASPETAR, Qatar Orthopaedic and Sports Medicine Hospital, Research and Education Centre, Doha, Qatar.

Copyright

(Copyright © 2014, Lippincott Williams and Wilkins)

DOI

10.1249/MSS.0000000000000408

PMID

24914518

Abstract

PURPOSE: The objective of this study was to investigate the effects of weather, rank and home advantage on international football (soccer) match results and scores in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region.

METHODS: Football matches (n = 2008) in six GCC countries was analysed. To determine the weather influence on the likelihood of favourable outcome and goals difference, generalised linear model with a logit link function, and multiple regression analysis were performed.

RESULTS: In GCC region, home teams tend to have greater likelihood of a favourable outcome (P < 0.001) and higher goals difference (P < 0.001). Temperature difference was identified as a significant explanatory variable when used independently (P < 0.001) or after adjustment for home advantage and team ranking (P < 0.001). The likelihood of favourable outcome for GCC teams increases by 3% for every 1 unit increase in temperature difference. After inclusion of interaction with opposition, this advantage remains significant only when playing against non GCC (nGCC) opponents. While home advantage increased the odds of favourable outcome (P < 0.001) and goals difference (P < 0.001) after inclusion of interaction term, the likelihood of favourable outcome for a GCC team decreased (P < 0.001) when playing against a stronger opponent. Finally, the temperature and wet bulb globe temperature approximation were found as better indicators of the impact environmental conditions than absolute and relative humidity or heat index on match outcomes.

CONCLUSION: In GCC region, higher temperature increased the likelihood of a favourable outcome when playing against nGCC teams. However, international ranking should be considered since an opponent with a higher rank reduced, but did not eliminate, the likelihood of a favourable outcome.

Language: en